Variance In Live Poker
Like the angler’s ‘one that got away’, variance has become a bit of a poker in-joke – the excuse when things go pear-shaped. But it has a sound mathematical basis, the idea being that in the real world, results are only predictable in a general way. One-off events tend to vary. It’s as simple as that.
Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker.
The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower
and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online
play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy
ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in
live poker due to the much slower pace of the game. Depending on
the type of game that you play, your skill level, your style of
play, and what limit you play, your live poker variance can mean
small swings on a monthly basis or huge swings on a weekly
basis.
Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in live poker due to the much slower. Variance is the difference between how much money you expect to win on average over the long run and the results you are seeing in the short term. So for example, if according to your win rate you expect to win $500 in a month on average but end up losing $1,000 instead, this is attributed to variance. Examples of variance in poker. Common Live Poker Variance Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online.
Live poker players tend to worry much more about their swings
than they really should, and this is a product of the environment.
When you are playing poker online, you don’t really have
the money in your hands. You don’t feel the losses as much
because everything is virtual. In live poker, however, a buy in
lost means you need to reach into your pocket for another $200,
$500 or $1,000+. These types of losses are very real and
will affect almost any player.
Variance at $1/$2 NLHE Games
In NLHE games you are always going to run into more variance
than what you’ll find in limit games, and for very obvious
reasons.
The lowest stakes No Limit games will have the lowest
long term swings due to:
- The overall skill levels of players
- Weak or new to the live poker scene
- Non serious players just playing for fun
Don’t expect to run into a whole lot of deep thinking players in these
games. As a result of all of this, you should not have many big
down swings.
Normal Swing Range for $1/$2 NLHE
Most $1/$2 NLHE players will have normal swings in the range
of 1-3 buy ins. Though 5 buy in swings are definitely going to
happen from time to time, they aren’t all that common. It’s
unlikely that you’ll frequently lose more than this if you are
a sound winning player. If you are going on bigger swings than
this at $1/$2, you may want to re-think your live poker strategy
altogether. In the end, it gets no easier than this limit when
it comes to live poker.
Variance at $2/$5 and $5/$10 NLHE Games
These two limits were lumped together, though they most
definitely could be separated. The reality is that a very small
percentage of the live poker population makes $5/$10 their
regular game for a number of reasons.
- There aren’t many casinos with a $5/$10 or higher No Limit Texas Hold’em
- Casinos are loaded with $1/$2 tables and the sparse $2/$5 table
- Only a couple casinos in these locations will have $5/$10 running at most times of the day
If you play in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, California, or Florida,
you’ll find some exceptions to this rule.
Normal Swing Range for $2/$5 & $5/$10 NLHE
In these games, swings of 1-5 buy ins are the norm. The live
poker variance will always increase as you play higher limit games
and games with tougher levels of opponents. Variance is going to
be diminished from the perspective of buy ins when you are
playing in deeper games. For example, a $1000 max game at $2/$5
will have less buy in variance than a $500 max $2/$5 game. This
is because many players will buy in short and for under the max
which will make it more unlikely that you will be in 2k+ pots.
Dealing with Live Poker Variance
One of the biggest adjustments and learning curves for new
live poker players is being able to adapt to the constant swings
of real money. You’ll likely be thinking about just how long
it is going to take for you to recoup those losses. Because live
poker is slow, you’ll be left with even more time to bemoan
your losses and to contemplate how just one faded flush card
would have turned your night around. In live poker it’s even
more important that you are able to let the losses roll off your
back.
A lot of players will stress out over their losses when
playing live because everything feels so real. Some of the common
reactions to negative variance include frustrated play,
angry/aggressive play, or simply running to casino games to try
and get even. Looking at things in a one session vacuum at a
time is very easy to do in live poker, but it needs to be
avoided.
The more that you realize that swings are going to
happen and that they are very normal, the more likely that you
are to be unaffected by them. If you play online, make sure to check out
our article covering online poker variance.
Professional poker players often describe their vocation as “a hard way to make an easy living”. One of the most difficult aspects of the game that a professional poker player must deal with is the inconsistency in income. Despite employing a strong skill set and the benefits of years of experience, many poker players still come home with less money in their pocket than when they arrived at the tables. These ups and downs of poker are often collectively known as “variance”.
What is Variance?
Variance In Live Poker Odds
In statistical terms, variance is used to examine the differences between an individual result and the average for a set of results. These results can be represented as data points in a set to determine the fluctuations within that set.
We’ll demonstrate how to calculate variance with a small sample data set. If you were to track the results for your previous sessions at a $3/$6 fixed-limit hold’em cash game, they could read:
-11, +85, -30, +144, +9, +30, -87
Each of these results represents a data point in a set of seven numbers.
The total of these seven sessions equals +140 (-11 + 85 – 30 + 144 + 9 + 30 – 87 = 140)
The average of these seven sessions equals +20 (140/7).
The variance is the sum of the squares of the differences between each data point and the mean.
Variance In Live Poker Deuces Wild
For the first result, (20 – (-11)) = (20 + 11) = 31. 31^2 = 961
Follow the same procedure for each result and you get these corresponding numbers:
961, 4225, 2500, 15376, 121, 100, 11449
Add up these numbers and divide by seven to get the variance:
961 + 4225 + 2500 + 15376 + 121 + 100 + 11449 = 34732
34732/7 = 4961.71
The standard deviation, another measure of volatility, is the square root of the variance:
SQRT(4961.71) = 70.43
The most frequent results lie within one standard deviation (+/- 70) of the mean (+20). With these results, a player should expect to finish a session somewhere between -50 (20-70) and +90 (20+70).
However, many of these data points lie outside that range. Are these results the products of bad luck, bad cards or bad play?
Variance and Sample Sizes
The more data points a sample size contains, the more accurate and reliable the measurements of variance and standard deviation will be. The seven-point data set included here is obviously much too small to give an accurate estimate of how a player performs at a 3/6 limit hold’em game. Also, more data points will give the player more information on how to manage the inevitable ups and downs involved in cash games.
Variance and the Central Limit Theorem
Another important mathematical concept that comes with sample size is the “Central Limit Theorem”. This concept states that, as the number of data points in a set grows, a plot of those points on a graph will resemble a normal statistical distribution, as seen in the classic “Bell Curve”.
The guiding principle is that, the larger the sample size, the more data points that will fall at or near the average. This measure of variance gives the player a more accurate idea as to what to expect from his results.
Variance and Luck
Even in the most distinguished poker careers, a player will have sessions where he has wins (or losses) that go two or more standard deviations away from the average. Many inexperienced players attribute these results to luck, but they are within the realm of possibility shown in the Bell Curve. These data points are known as “outliers” and, individually, have little effect on the variance seen over a career. If these “outlying” results continue to appear, however, they may signal the start of a new trend.
Variance and Bankrolls
A sufficient poker bankroll is necessary to act as a cushion against variance. Some players may believe that, with just a few positive results at a $1/$2 no-limit hold’em game, they are ready to jump into a $2/$5 or $5/$10 game, regardless of their bankroll size. When the variance swings in the negative direction, as it inevitably will, a depleted bankroll could send the player to either a lower-stakes game or out of the game entirely.
Variance and Structure
Some poker games, as well as some betting structures, are prone to have higher variance than others. For instance, a $3/$6 fixed-limit hold’em game will have much less variance than a $1/$2 no-limit hold’em game due almost exclusively to the betting structure. In the $3/$6 limit game, the maximum bet a player can make on the river is $24 (bet-raise-re-raise-cap). In the no-limit game, a player can bet his entire stack at any time, which may be hundreds of dollars. These bet sizes can cause huge swings in variance.
Variance in Poker Tournaments
Despite the allure of fame and glory presented by televised events, no-limit hold’em tournaments are shining examples of the deceptive power of variance. Most professional players (including many famous faces on the tournament circuit) make more of their living through cash games and only enter the most prestigious (and lucrative) tournaments due to the high variance involved. Most major tournament winners are “outliers”, as up to ninety percent of all tournament players walk home empty-handed.
Variance and Playing Styles
In a previous piece, we examined the four primary playing styles (loose-passive, loose-aggressive, tight-passive and tight-aggressive). Just as the tight-aggressive style has been shown to be the most profitable, it also often results in the lowest variance. Both the loose-passive and the tight-passive players depend on catching cards to win hands (a high-variance strategy) while the loose-aggressive style relies on big bets to push players off hands. The tight-aggressive method relies on strong starting hand selection, infrequent bluffs and a well-founded understanding of probabilities, all of which contribute to reducing variance.
Variance and Emotion
The effects of big wins and staggering losses are not strictly limited to a player’s bankroll. The emotional roller coaster that comes with big swings in variance can also affect how a player approaches the game. Players who have become accustomed to big wins may lose their cool when confronted with a crushing loss. One bad session can set a player “on tilt” and wreck both his skills and his confidence.
How to Deal with Variance
Shifts in variance can be as unpredictable and dangerous as shifts in the weather: everybody complains about them, but no one can do anything to prevent it. The most important aspect of success in poker lies in treating each session or tournament as a continuation in one long game. Experienced players understand that their success or failure as a player does not lie in the results of a single tournament or a handful of cash-game sessions. Each session represents only a single data point: a consistent approach will often reduce (but never entirely eliminate) variance.
Conclusion
Former World Series of Poker Main Event Champion Chris “Jesus” Ferguson once said that poker is “100 percent luck and 100 percent skill”. The turn of each card is the result of luck, but how a player responds to that unpredictable event is the product of skill, practice and experience. The ability to manage the game’s inherent variance is a skill on par with calculating odds and outs in terms of how successful a player can eventually become.
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By Gerald Hanks
Gerald Hanks is from Houston Texas, and has been playing poker since 2002. He has played cash games and no-limit hold’em tournaments at live venues all over the United States.